Title: Trump Set to Challenge California’s Ambitious Emissions Strategy
As the political landscape shifts, President-elect Donald Trump appears poised to dismantle California’s recently adopted ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel light vehicles by 2035, a significant environmental initiative approved only months prior.
California’s groundbreaking proposal, unveiled in August 2022, aims to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in a concerted effort to curtail carbon emissions. Given that the transportation sector contributes approximately half of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and accounts for 80% of its air pollutants, this ban represents a bold stride toward environmental reform.
While plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will remain exempt from this prohibition, they must offer a minimum of 80 kilometers of real-world electric-only driving and cannot constitute over 20% of a manufacturer’s total sales. The remainder of vehicle offerings must be exclusively electric.
Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted its approval for this framework, which is set to be adopted not only in California but also across 11 additional states, including New York.
However, Trump’s anticipated actions could render this sweeping initiative short-lived. He has indicated plans to annul any EPA approvals allocated to California, expressing criticism of the outgoing Biden Administration’s vehicle policies. If implemented, these changes would include the elimination of federal tax credits for electric vehicles, valued at up to $7,500, as well as a reduction in funding for charging infrastructure—redirecting those resources toward "national defense supply chains and critical infrastructure."
Furthermore, Trump is reported to be considering a rollback of the EPA’s emissions and fuel economy standards to levels observed in 2019, effectively reversing the advancements made in recent regulatory efforts. While the EPA has set a target for electric vehicles to represent between 35% and 56% of new vehicle sales by 2032, this figure serves more as a guideline than an enforceable mandate.
Previously, expectations for EV market penetration reached as high as 67%, but those projections were scaled back in April 2023 due to a cooling demand for electric vehicles.
In the run-up to the U.S. elections, Trump made unfounded claims that the federal government mandates sales of electric vehicles at 100%, pledging to abolish such requirements if elected.
Recent reports from Reuters suggest that if the 2019 emissions regulations are reinstated, vehicles would be permitted to emit up to 25% more pollutants than allowed under the 2025 standards and consume as much as 15% more fuel.
John Bozzella, the president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a prominent lobby group representing American automakers, has voiced disapproval of California’s ICE ban, predicting that "President Trump will revoke the waiver in 2025."
"We’ve argued for a unified national standard to reduce transportation-related carbon emissions, but the issue of California’s capacity to set a vehicle emissions program—and the potential for other states to follow suit—is ultimately a matter for legislators and the judiciary to address."
Bozzella elaborated on three primary concerns regarding California’s Advanced Clean Cars II initiative. He noted that it effectively serves as an electrification sales mandate, imposing a de facto ban on new gasoline-powered vehicles. Additionally, many states following California’s lead may not be sufficiently prepared to meet these requirements, with achieving the proposed sales goals appearing increasingly arduous under current market conditions. Lastly, he highlighted the significant disconnect between automakers’ ability to produce electrified vehicles and consumers’ desires for a diverse array of vehicle choices.
While California’s initial proposal had called for hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to constitute more than 10% of new car sales by 2035, market performance for this niche technology has faltered, with sales dwindling in the state. According to the Los Angeles Times, just 298 FCEVs were sold in the first half of this year—a marked decrease from the 1,765 sold in the first half of the previous year, coinciding with sluggish progress in California’s hydrogen infrastructure rollout, which aims to establish 200 refueling stations by 2025 but currently lags significantly behind schedule.
Source:www.carexpert.com.au
